Hawai‘i COVID-19 News Update – September 24, 2021
Aloha,
Here are the latest COVID-19 news and issues facing Hawai‘i that you need to know this week.
Researchers now predict a downward trend in COVID-19 cases depending on an array of factors like the state’s vaccination rate, restrictions and changes in people’s behavior.
- The Hawai‘i Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group (HIPAM) forecasts that in the most optimistic scenario, with higher vaccination rates, daily case counts for Honolulu County could fall to the range of 127. In the worst-case scenario, with lower vaccination rates, they fall to 237. Statewide, the models estimate a downward trend in the next 10 days.
- The group estimates the mayor’s Safe Access O‘ahu program, which requires customers at restaurants and other businesses to show proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test, could reduce cases by about 30% in the next 10 days.
- As a result of the Safer Outside program, which reduces gathering sizes and requires proof of vaccination for restaurants and other businesses, HIPAM observes fluctuating case counts and an overall dip in cases for Maui County. Forecasters say interactions between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals would be reduced by 50%, on average, and predicts daily COVID cases in Maui County dropping from a peak of 114 to 18 to 21 cases.
- University of Hawai‘i mathematics professor Monique Chyba and lead at HIPAM, said, “It can shift either way very quickly. It seems that mitigations are doing their job, but the issue is that there are still a lot of people unvaccinated and since we cannot eradicate the delta once we reopen, it will have its course again. It is not a simple situation.”
- Meanwhile, the Honolulu Star Advertiser writes that Hawai‘i is feeling the effects of heightened demand and a national shortage of monoclonal antibody treatments for COVID-19. The state received just half of the supply that it requested.
Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi extends O‘ahu’s ban on large gatherings through mid-October.
- Citing the relatively high rate of hospitalizations, Mayor Blangiardi continued the restrictions, limiting gatherings to 10 people indoors and 25 people outdoors and suspending large weddings, funerals, concerts, and sporting events. The restrictions initially went into effect in late August and were set to expire this week.
- The extension means the University of Hawai‘i will remain the only program in the country that will not allow fans in its football stadium.
- Mayor Blangiardi told KHON2, “We know that the curtailing of large gatherings has a lot to do with communal spread, which is why we made a decision and it’s reflective in the numbers coming down. And so we’re confident in the strategy we struck and we don’t want to disrupt that strategy.”
- Health officials also warn that some hospitals remain dangerously full even as case counts begin to decline. On Wednesday, 282 patients were hospitalized statewide, marking a 40% drop from the peak of 448 three weeks ago.
- Daniel Ross, president of the Hawai‘i Nurses Association, said hospitals wouldn’t be able to care for their high patient counts without the help of 650 temporary medical staff flown in from the mainland.
- Other major hospitals like Queen’s Health System, Hawai‘i Pacific Health and Kaiser Permanente are resuming elective surgeries following the decline in hospitalizations and stabilization of the state’s oxygen supply, according to the Honolulu Star Advertiser.
Hotel occupancy took a double-digit dive last month compared to pre-pandemic levels, but new research finds most domestic travelers are willing to pay more for sustainable travel.
- According to a Hawai‘i Tourism Authority report, statewide hotel occupancy in August was 73.4%, dropping from peak 2019 levels as the delta virus and emergency measures reduced travel demand.
- Economist Paul Brewbaker says the surge of the Delta variant in late July is to blame, saying, “Pandemics depress the economy; public health interventions do not.” Brewbaker told the Honolulu Star Advertiser, “There is more here going on than ‘they did what the Gov said.’” Brewbaker was referring to Governor Ige’s message in late August asking visitors not to travel to Hawai‘i and residents to limit travel to essential purposes.
- Other hospitality industry leaders disagree with the economist. Keith Vieira, principal of KV & Associates, Hospitality Consulting, said school starting and COVID concerns contributed, but, “Then, the governor of a state that gets all its revenue from tourism told them not to come. In my talks with wholesalers and airlines, the governor’s message was the No. 1 factor for the drop.”
- Meanwhile, new research from the University of Hawai‘i suggests about 70% of U.S. domestic visitors to Hawaiʻi are willing to pay more for authentic and sustainable travel experiences, and the majority would pay more to support locally-sourced food.
- A new report for the American Hotel and Lodging Association says Hawai‘i is expected to lose $1.1 billion in business travel compared to 2019. In the islands, the meetings, conferences and incentives market (MCI) accounts for a majority of business travel.
- Kalani Kaʻanaʻana, the Hawaiʻi Tourism Authority’s chief brand officer, said, “On the meeting side and the MCI side, those are really the travelers we’re going after. They tend to be more respectful, they’re happening in structured events where they’re occupied during the day — reducing their impact and traffic and other things.”
A new report says the state’s economy is expected to resume recovery in November, driven by a pickup in tourism and travel.
- The University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization (UHERO) writes that a pickup in tourism should lead to a broader rebound for the state economy resuming late in the year after an interruption by Coronavirus mitigation measures enacted in August and slated to last at least into next month.
- The report says, “Additional increments to tourism recovery will be slower as we move beyond this year and next, reflecting still-struggling overseas markets, economic hardship for some U.S. families — particularly now that many federal support programs have been phased out — and the loss of some tourism infrastructure due to small-business failures and barriers to the reentry of transient vacation rentals.”
- Researchers acknowledge the downward trend in cases and hospitalizations following the recent Delta variant peaks. Still, they note that uncertainty remains, which could lead to a different outcome for Hawai‘i’s economy.
- UHERO projects that the statewide unemployment rate for the whole year will be 8.3%, which is a full percentage point higher than what UHERO anticipated in a previous report published in May.
A Hawai‘i economist forecasts what Hawai‘i’s economic future will look like in the next decade and examines trends in unemployment levels, diversification, and the Delta variant’s impact.
- In a Hawai‘i Society of Business Professionals webinar, Paul Brewbaker shared his insights under the theme “Economic Forecast: Roaring 20s or Boring 20s?” A few key takeaways include:
- Tourism supports the growth of Hawaiʻi’s industries. Hawaiʻi’s GDP data by industry shows that sectors outside of hospitality have grown substantially over the past few years, and limiting accommodations is unproductive for the health of Hawaiʻi’s economy.
- Unemployment was on the rise for years before COVID-19. Those aged 16-19 place greater value on higher education and are forgoing jobs, while older groups have chosen not to return to their positions due to the post-COVID workplace environment.
- Hawaiʻi continues to cycle through periods of economic recovery. A drop in travel began at the end of July and continued through August amid the surge of cases due to the Delta variant and Gov. Ige’s request that visitors rethink their trips. The overall hit to tourism isn’t exclusive to Hawaiʻi and is a behavior change across the board for travelers.
Mahalo nui loa,
Your BG Team